No man, no problem
MetaFilter's post "Leisure Suit Larry" links to the story of Larry Hillblom, an American billionaire who retired to Micronesia to bang as many
It is always easy to be right and brave in retrospect once you know who is going to win, and say that of course we would have been on that side. Since Americans apparently had some kind of holiday celebration recently, Tyler Cowen of Marginal Revolution looks back and asks himself "Would I have supported the American Revolution?" In a similar spirit, Donald Pittenger of Two Blowhards asks if, when Nazi Germany occupied France, he would choose to "Collaborate, Resist or ..."
Dennis Mangan continues on the theme of efficient markets hypothesis with the post "Beating the Market: An Occasional Series: The Robot". While reading this, I immediately started wondering what would happen if everybody became a "contrarian" investor. More generally, if there really are investment strategies that beat the market, why doesn't everybody already follow them, or invest to mutual funds that follow them? You'd think that somebody would start such mutual fund, with all the hoopla and energy spent in this field.
I also remember many years ago when me and the chums wondered what would happen if somebody invented a machine that could reliably predict the stock market. I didn't really think it through, but I don't think that the mere existence of such machine would directly lead to a paradox as in the standard proof for the algorithmic unsolvability of the halting problem.
Now that Ken Lay of Enron fame died before going to jail, the post "The Ken Lay Obits" by Ezra Klein makes a few observations that I recall similarly wondering about in other contexts. But it's not like the death penalty is any kind of feast of intellectual consistency anyways. However, much more interesting for me was the link to the obituary at Washington Post. Reading it, it sure feels surreal to see a major newspaper nonchalantly admitting, even taking delight in the understanding that being raped is a de facto part of serving a prison sentence in America. And this in an obituary.
(I could also write a bit more about the curious fact that whenever somebody gets all giddy about the prospect of prison rape, the target of this fantasy always seems to be a white male who is not that strong or threatening physically, and the perpetrator is either a person of colour or clearly belongs to the white underclass. But perhaps I shall leave digging through the obvious motivations for now, for someone else to catch and run with. I am sure that the reason for this enthusiasm for prison rape is totally different from what my cynical mind assumes it to be.)
Brooke Oberwetter has noticed that these days "Everyone's an Expert". Well, that's Internet for you, releasing all this so far untamed and unused knowledge for the masses. Information wants to be free, as somebody once famously said.
To prepare for the holiday in Las Vegas, I re-read some of the Mark Pilarski's gambling columns that I remember enjoying years ago. I don't intend to do any gambling myself, since if I spend a wad of cash, I might as well get something for it and blow it in Scores or Spearmint Rhino to get at least something back for it. But the missus has her heart dead set on the blackjack tables. Even now there is a basic strategy chart taped on the side of our monitor, for her to study when she practices online. With the house edge under 1%, who knows what might happen? I don't know what I'll do instead while she is playing, perhaps I'll just stroll the Strip and look at the sights. If any of my readers have tips and suggestions, I am happy to listen to them.
Vox Day made me laugh with his observation about "A taste of NRO's own medicine". After pointing out the amusing hypocrisy of the neocon gang, Vox goes on to apply the exact same logic to show that
Seeing as the original Patriarchs were all Jewish, it is obvious that "Patriarchy" is a nifty code word for "Jews", so therefore feminism is nothing but a particularly ugly face of anti-Semitism and all feminists hate Jews.
Steve Sailer
has often written about the "dirt gap", that is, the fact that "blue
state" cities tend to be located on coasts while the "red state" cities
tend to have space all around them, making land and real estate cheaper
in the latter. However, the news article "Condos for sail" tells us how the useless sea can be put to productive uses. All aboard on Rosie's cruise of love and acceptance!
Donald Sensing at Winds of Change takes a pessimistic look at the possibility of our being able to turn back global warming in his post "The wrong size glass", linking to Robert Samuelson's opinion piece "The Real Inconvenient Truth". For some reason, reading these articles suddenly remound me of Markku's
old laconic point that he is perfectly willing to give up his present
consumption of electricity, if he is guaranteed to get the two hundred
human slaves who would be needed to do the things for him that
electricity currently provides him. But go on, leftists, keep opposing
nuclear energy and energy in general, if you really believe that women
and your other beloved minorities will be better off in a low-energy
society. Keep spreading your moronic slogans and painting horror
scenarios about two-headed babies, and who knows, you might even be
rewarded with more cigarettes! (I simply never grow tired of seeing a
lefty telling people that nuclear power causes cancer and oppresses the
Third World, a ciggy hanging from his mouth as he is telling this. It's
just so... oh, I can't even think of a word.)
I am not sure if I
approve the whole notion of personal bankruptcy, that is, the idea that
you should be able to take debts and then not pay them back. The
article "12 myths about bankruptcy"
explains that bankruptcy is not really a big deal and that there is
absolutely nothing wrong in shafting the people who loaned you money.
Since in some American states you even get to keep your home at the
bankruptcy, certain rather perverse "investment strategies" start
looking like a pretty good deal to me.
For some reason, I have
never really liked beer. At a restaurant I can enjoy an occasional
Corona with my burger or steak, but ordinary normal beer, especially if
it is not ice cold, usually just makes me want to spit it out. After I
went to college, pretty soon I learned to drink liquor instead of beer,
scotch being typically my drink of choice. This way, you don't need to
be constantly going to the bathroom, which makes the whole evening more
enjoyable. (And make mine straight up, none of that "coke and X" crap
for me, unless it's rum and coke, which I finally learned to drink here
in Canada in my desire to assimilate to my new homeland). Now, I have
heard of the maxim "candy is dandy, but liquor is quicker" before, but
I had never heard of another similar maxim "beer before liquor, never
been sicker; liquor before beer, you’re in the clear" until I read the
post "Beer before liquor…"
that examines and debunks the accuracy of this heuristic. "In fourteen
hundred ninety three, Columbus sailed the deep blue sea..."
Ken Lay would have faced little risk of homosexual rape had he gone to prison. He would have gone to a federal prison, and they generally aren't quite as jungle-like as state penitentiaries. Moreover, because of his age, he probably would have been sent to a specialized medical facility rather than a standard prison.
Peter
Iron Rails & Iron Weights
Posted by Anonymous | 10:26 PM
The stock-market predictor does not lead to a paradox per se, but it cannot possibly be used to generate large scale profits. If it could, then this would lead to a paradox with arbitrage. I will scetch the paradox when I have time. Probably someone has done so already.
Posted by Tiedemies | 1:28 AM
There are algorithms that provably beat the market in the long run, for example
Thomas M. Cover's "universal" portfolio strategy. The exponential growth rate of Cover's strategy approaches the growth rate of the best constant rebalanced portfolio chosen in hindsight, which is always higher than the growth rate of the best single stock chosen in hindsight, and thus also higher than the growth rate of any market average.
When I read about this and other "online prediction" results applied to portfolio selection, I tested a couple of the algorithms on some stock market data. Because of transaction costs, I don't think any small time investor is going to get rich using them. Although the algorithms do seem to outperform the market given zero transaction costs, the extra returns don't seem to be greater than what you'd get from a simple non-market-cap-weighted index.
Posted by Antero Kälvä | 6:02 AM
Here's one "paradox"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Harris_Simons
Chern-Simons Theory is pretty impressive too.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chern-Simons_theory
Posted by H-Baari | 8:16 AM