Actuarial presidency

Posted by – August 30, 2008

John McCain’s veep choice is about seven times as significant as Barack Obama’s.

My calculations based on recent actuarial data indicate that the likelihood of McCain dying from natural causes during the next presidential term is around 14%. For Obama that figure is 2%.

Actually it’s more like 7.2 times as significant, but it’s all rather inaccurate. I’ve ignored that:

-both are ex-smokers, McCain has had cancer

-neither is overweight

-statistical lifestyle indicators: McCain has an undergraduate military “degree”, Obama is a juris doctor; McCain is white, Obama is half-black; McCain is silent generation, Obama is (more or less) generation X; both are married, but McCain has been divorced once, etc. From what I’ve heard, Obama’s lifestyle is healthier than McCain’s

Also, McCain doesn’t look like a two-termer: his chances of dying during the next two terms are almost 1/3.

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